Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 12.496198 15.283279 18.387827 22.079874 26.327529 31.037913 36.632124
2025-12-21 7.956474 11.341409 15.551074 21.073346 28.021660 36.366937 47.030808
2025-12-28 6.021173 9.689253 14.653482 21.649083 31.018721 42.890778 58.797955
2026-01-04 4.660302 8.373465 13.789142 21.900325 33.336635 48.459759 69.485254
2026-01-11 3.734830 7.432174 13.201911 22.315235 35.736249 54.122556 80.462320
2026-01-18 3.088237 6.761043 12.857350 22.950528 38.383831 60.168811 92.165484
2026-01-25 2.402908 5.842563 11.942691 22.549483 39.399980 63.906092 100.792968
2026-02-01 1.970647 5.277991 11.503355 22.801519 41.346183 69.000797 111.481232
2026-02-08 1.540129 4.593742 10.725407 22.368243 42.134814 72.372984 119.780099
2026-02-15 1.177243 3.942400 9.883469 21.694895 42.432410 74.957636 126.966882
2026-02-22 1.006058 3.694470 9.781893 22.312066 44.866280 80.892680 139.329584
2026-03-01 0.791664 3.260086 9.216180 21.989749 45.656721 84.260332 147.902340
2026-03-08 0.640543 2.963203 8.930129 22.241650 47.587342 89.742749 160.288195
2026-03-15 0.449711 2.451174 8.050629 21.209924 47.165404 91.420908 166.892260
2026-03-22 0.372515 2.285374 7.963972 21.787246 49.697489 98.065582 181.565366
2026-03-29 0.297444 2.084242 7.742165 22.039650 51.621770 103.755919 194.893831
2026-04-05 0.241698 1.928646 7.606175 22.456612 53.872758 110.081715 209.449438
2026-04-12 0.201494 1.818301 7.572242 23.095038 56.584444 117.300518 225.686668
2026-04-19 0.146862 1.585055 7.119054 22.692017 57.187822 120.838728 235.935587
2026-04-26 0.115622 1.455010 6.950141 22.945296 59.120787 126.793551 250.388618
2026-05-03 0.081788 1.264059 6.528296 22.509882 59.587666 130.113038 260.474005
2026-05-10 0.054395 1.072821 6.041964 21.833191 59.479150 132.354103 268.761719
2026-05-17 0.044266 1.019206 6.045499 22.453426 62.190731 139.893705 286.385036